Watermarking promises a statistical trace of large language model (LLM) use, but real documents, after editing or paraphrasing, rarely arrive as purely human-written or purely machine-generated. This motivates a quantitative question beyond detection: what proportion of a document is generated from a pre-specified watermarked LLM? We study this watermark proportion estimation problem under the Gumbel--max watermarking mechanism, treating the next-token prediction (NTP) distributions as unknown and arbitrary nuisance parameters subject to a non-degeneracy condition. We compare two observation regimes: in the full observation regime, the estimator observes the pseudorandom vector and the selected token at each position; under the more popular setting of pivotal reduction, it observes only a scalar pivot, which follows a one-dimensional Uniform--Beta mixture distribution. Under pivotal reduction, we develop a Laguerre-polynomial estimator and establish a matching information-theoretic lower bound for the sample complexity. For full observation, we introduce an event-counting estimator and show a matching lower bound, yielding a substantially smaller sample complexity. As our results imply, although reducing to pivotal statistics is an elegant and widely used procedure, it is not always sample-efficient for estimating the proportion of watermarks.

We study the problem of estimating the arrival times of vertices in a uniform random recursive tree from its unlabeled structure. We adopt a pointwise perspective and analyze the distribution of the relative estimation error, and derive tail bounds that are uniform in both the vertex and the tree size. For the ranking induced by Jordan centrality, the probability that the estimate exceeds the true arrival time by a factor $S$ decays on the order of $1/S$, while the probability of underestimating the arrival time by a factor $1/S$ decays exponentially in $S$. We introduce a refined centrality measure whose overestimation tail decays on the order of $(\log S)/S^{2}$, at the cost of a heavier lower tail of order $1/S^{2}$. These results reveal a tradeoff between upper- and lower-tail performance in arrival-time estimation that is invisible to the previously studied risk functional. Nevertheless, the refined centrality measure attains the optimal order of the risk for all its parameter values.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are central to applications such as swarm robotics and traffic routing, where agents must coordinate in a decentralized manner to achieve a common objective. Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problems provide a natural framework for modeling decentralized control in such settings. While the problem of learning in SSP has been extensively studied in single-agent settings, the decentralized multi-agent variant remains largely unexplored. In this work, we take a step towards addressing that gap. We study decentralized multi-agent SSPs (Dec-MASSPs) under linear function approximation, where the transition dynamics and costs are represented using linear models. Applying novel symmetry-based arguments, we identify the structure of optimal policies. Our main contribution is the first regret lower bound for this setting based on the construction of hard-tolearn instances for any number of agents, n. Our regret lower bound of Ω( K), over K episodes, highlights the inherent learning difficulty in Dec-MASSPs. These insights clarify the learning complexity of decentralized control and can further guide the design of efficient learning algorithms in multi-agent systems.

We propose SW-Guidance, a training-free approach for image generation conditioned on the color distribution of a reference image. While it is possible to generate an image with fixed colors by first creating an image from a text prompt and then applying a color style transfer method, this approach often results in semantically meaningless colors in the generated image. Our method solves this problem by modifying the sampling process of a diffusion model to incorporate the differentiable Sliced 1-Wasserstein distance between the color distribution of the generated image and the reference palette. Our method outperforms state-ofthe-art techniques for color-conditional generation in terms of color similarity to the reference, producing images that not only match the reference colors but also maintain semantic coherence with the original text prompt.

We show that replacing the standard MSE denoising loss in diffusion models with a nonlinear transformation induced by an f-divergence yields a simple robust training surrogate that empirically improves performance under data contamination, with small additional computational overhead. The theoretical foundation rests on a local divergence construction: under the Gaussian reverse-kernel structure of DDPM, each per-step likelihood ratio follows a lognormal distribution parameterized by a scalar mismatch, so the conditional f-divergence at each step reduces to a one-dimensional function of the denoising error. Summing these local divergences yields a training objective that unifies diffusion training as divergence induced weighted denoising, where the derivative of the induced divergence acts as a residual-space influence weight that controls the contribution of each sample. Bounded-influence divergences (Hellinger, negative exponential) suppress large error samples, with Hellinger yielding an explicit exponential weight, connecting the framework to robust M-estimation. Empirically, on CIFAR-10 under 30% contamination, NED reduces FID from 93.0 (KL) to 77.5, while also outperforming standard robust losses such as Huber and clipped MSE.

We study the task of agnostically learning general (as opposed to homogeneous) ReLUs under the Gaussian distribution with respect to the squared loss. In the passive learning setting, recent work gave a computationally efficient algorithm that uses poly(d,1/ϵ)labeled examples and outputs a hypothesis with error O(opt)+ϵ, where optis the squared loss of the best fit ReLU. Here we focus on the interactive setting, where the learner has some form of query access to the labels of unlabeled examples. Our main result is the first computationally efficient learner that uses dpolylog(1/ϵ)+ O(min{1/p,1/ϵ})black-box label queries, where pis the bias of the target function, and achieves error O(opt)+ϵ. We complement our algorithmic result by showing that its query complexity bound is qualitatively near-optimal, even ignoring computational constraints. Finally, we establish that query access is essentially necessary to improve on the label complexity of passive learning. Specifically, for pool-based active learning, any active learner requires Ω(d/ϵ) labels, unless it draws a super-polynomial number of unlabeled examples.

This paper introduces a novel kernel-based formulation of the Equalized Odds (EO) criterion, denoted as EOk, for fair representation learning (FRL) in supervised settings. The central goal of FRL is to mitigate discrimination regarding a sensitive attribute S while preserving prediction accuracy for the target variable Y. Our proposed criterion enables a rigorous and interpretable quantification of three core fairness objectives: independence (bY S), separation-also known as equalized odds (bY S | Y), and calibration (Y S | bY). Under both unbiased (Y S) and biased (Y S) conditions, we show that EOk satisfies both independence and separation in the former, and uniquely preserves predictive accuracy while lower bounding independence and calibration in the latter, thereby offering a unified analytical characterization of the tradeoffs among these fairness criteria. We further define the empirical counterpart, dEOk, a kernel-based statistic that can be computed in quadratic time, with linear-time approximations also available. A concentration inequality for dEOk is derived, providing performance guarantees and error bounds, which serve as practical certificates of fairness compliance. While our focus is on theoretical development, the results lay essential groundwork for principled and provably fair algorithmic design in future empirical studies.

We consider the basic problem of learning Single-Index Models with respect to the square loss under the Gaussian distribution in the presence of adversarial label noise. Our main contribution is the first computationally efficient algorithm for this learning task, achieving a constant factor approximation, that succeeds for the class of all monotone activations with bounded moment of order 2 + ζ, for ζ > 0. This class in particular includes all monotone Lipschitz functions and even discontinuous functions like (possibly biased) halfspaces. Prior work for the case of unknown activation either does not attain constant factor approximation or succeeds for a substantially smaller family of activations. The main conceptual novelty of our approach lies in developing an optimization framework that steps outside the boundaries of usual gradient methods and instead identifies a useful vector field to guide the algorithm updates by directly leveraging the problem structure, properties of Gaussian spaces, and regularity of monotone functions.

We study the online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set P Rd relative to an arbitrary norm k k. We connect this with the problem of external regret minimization for online linear optimization, showing that if it is possible to guarantee O( ρT) worst-case regret after T rounds when actions are drawn from P and losses are drawn from the dual k k unit norm ball, then it is also possible to obtain -calibrated forecasts after T = exp(O(ρ/2)) rounds.